2015/16: 10th – 50 Wins, 32 Losses
Offensive Rating – 109.5 (5th)
Defensive Rating – 106.4 (20th)
One thing you can say about the Playoff performance of the Dallas Mavericks is that it certainly made a lot of headlines. Another thing you could say is that Rondo single-handedly screwed all of his team-mates by throwing the post-season away on their behalf. Another thing you could say is that it was a horrible and sad waste of the last years of Dirk Nowitzki’s career. Effectively throwing a tantrum and spitting the dummy out over the first two games of the Play-offs, Rondo took it on himself to ruin the chances of the Dallas Mavericks by butting heads with Coach Rick Carlisle and act like a petulant child. I can remember a time in recent memory where I witnessed any player act like such a child and set fire to a franchises season in a vital Play-off moment. The chances are that the Mavericks would have lost this series anyway, but looking at the match-ups here and assuming everyone was going to be at the best level they could be, we here at Bucketsblog certainly convinced each other that this series would be much closer.
Now the team will look completely different, like it always seems to look at the start of the season when they clear the decks for the current marquee free agent who inevitably scorns them and forces them sign a new round of short-term deals in anticipation of the next year. This summer saw the departures of Tyson Chandler and Monta Ellis and of course the toxic Rajon Rondo. Instead of snagging Jordan, Alrdridge or Gasol, they did manage to steal Wesley Matthews away from Portland, and Deron Williams away from Brooklyn. Matthews is a solid move if he can come back from his Achilles rupture and play at his best, and D-Will is certainly worth a punt at $5 million a year. He’s already a significant upgrade from the locker-room cancer that is Rondo.
So a massive Playoff disappointment, and a completely new look for the new season, the Mavericks will likely be competing at the bottom end of the Western Conference Playoff picture.
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Depth Chart:
| Point Guard | Deron Williams | Devin Harris | Raymond Felton |
| Shooting Guard | Wesley Matthews | J.J. Barea | |
| Small Forward | Chandler Parsons | Justin Anderson | |
| Power Forward | Dirk Nowitzki | Charlie Villanueva | Jeremy Evans |
| Centre | JaVale McGee | Zaza Pachulia | Salah Mejri |
D-Will showed a professional and productive approach to the NBA Playoffs this year for the Brooklyn Nets, so he is already an upgrade at the PG position based on that alone. If Rondo had lived up to expectations and been capable of playing the brand of Rondo basketball that saw the Boston Celtics stay prominent between 2008 and 2011 then hands down he would have been a great addition to this Mavs team. That didn’t happen though, and if D-Will can remain healthy, something he has been unable to do over the past 3 years, then he can provide them with much better shooting and play-making than Rondo. He averaged 13-3-6.5 last season on a team that he has been consistently criticized for not having a great deal of interest in. He wont be relied on to score the ball, but id he can make some open shots and orchestrate the talented scoring pieces that will start alongside him, maybe showing a bit more interest now that he is hopefully playing for a team that he is more happy about being with, then this could easy work out as a good signing for the Mavericks.
For Wesley Matthew, the main concern will be if he can come back effectively from his achilles rupture and be able to produce at the level we have come to expect of him over the past 4 years. If he can, then this is a very good signing and he will be a great contributor for this team. If he can’t, then this is a disastrous waste of $70 million on the part of the Mavs. Let’s be optimistic though and say he does come back and he’s the same old player, he will provide the Mavs with a wing defender who can cover up for the defensive deficiencies of Chandler Parsons, and also give them a reliable spot-up three-point shooter who does not need the ball constantly on offense to be effective. With 16 points per game he excels in an offense where the guard is probing and can get him open shots, and I think D-Will can be that guy. I like this move, just get this injury sorted.
Chandler Parsons will continue to be an effective wing scorer for the Mavericks, but he will also continue to allow his man to drop a decent number of points on him too. This makes the Matthews signing a great move for them, freeing Parsons up a little from guarding other talented wing scorers in the league. Parsons has also taken on a role in recruiting other players to Dallas, probably having a close-up view of the deterioration of Nowitzki’s and panicking that he might be the legit face of the franchise soon. 16 points and 5 rebounds per game last season, I would expect his scoring numbers to improve a touch in the absence of Monta Ellis eating up a lot of shots and Matthews not really being the type of player to shoot quite as much. As Nowtizki declines further it will likely be on the shoulders of Parsons to take on more of a leadership role and slowly become the number 1 scoring option.
Speaking of Dirk Nowitzki, not long ago I just heard Bill Simmons describe him as a “mummy”, a term I previously thought was reserved for the way that Kareem Abdul-Jabbar looked at the end of his career. His offensive game is beginning to decline as he reaches the age of 37, but he can at times still manage to find a way to contort his body in some kind of crazy way to squeeze off a vintage Nowitzki shot. If he can still manage to get around 17 points per game next season then that will be great for them. The rebounding numbers don’t look great from last season with 6 rebounds a contest but that is no doubt due to the fact that he was taking his rest on certain defensive plays and letting Chandler deal with it. He wont be able to do that this season, which could mean a significant problem for the Mavs defending the interior. His role will start to recede, and that is sad for fans of the big awkward German but he has had a good run and won a title and an MVP award. He wont win anything else.
The Mavs have buckets full of PG depth. Barea, Harris and Felton are all good options as a second string PG and none of them are really good enough to start so its great that the managed to get D-Will. Over the last season I have seen all of these guys playing decent minutes for the Mavs, and it is a luxury for them to be able to pull a number of effective play-makers off the bench. Outside of these guys, the bench gets pretty thin, with Zaza Pachulia and Charlie Villanueva backing up the front-court. And let me say, realistically at this point the starting duo of Dirk Nowitzki and JaVale McGee are more like what you would expect from a bench. Justin Anderson could be interesting and his development will be under the microscope probably more than he would like to be as a 21st pick, given that he will directly back-up Chandler Parsons.
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Story of the Summer:
- Deandre Jordan verbally commits to Mavs, before u-turning to resign with the Clippers.
- Mavs sign recently waived PG Deron Williams for $10 million over 2 years.
- Mavs snatch 3 and D SG Wesley Matthews from Portland, 4 years and $70 million.
- Mavs plug center gap with free agent center JaVale McGee for 2 years at the veterans minimum.
- Monta Ellis opts out of the final year of his contract, joins the Pacers.
- Mavs draft Justin Anderson at 21 and Satnam Singh at 52 in the 2015 NBA Draft.
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Strengths/Weaknesses:
- Deron Williams is an upgrade from the dysfunctional Rajon Rondo, in most ways.
- Wesley Matthews provides them with a wing defender who can cover for the poor defense of Parsons.
- They have very good depth in the back-court, especially at the PG position.
- One of the top 5 coaches in the NBA with Rick Carlisle.
- They will improve on the defensive end, where they struggled last season.
- Wesley Matthews may never be the same after his Achilles injury.
- They have a massive gap at the center spot now since Deandre Jordan let them down.
- Difficult to say where the interior defense and rim protection comes from now.
- Front-court depth is an issue.
- Dirk Nowitzki could very possibly be playing past his sell by date.
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This will certainly be a tough season for the Mavs, but I expect them to retain their position in the Playoffs at the 7th or 8th seed come April. They will be competing directly with the Pelicans for seeding, and will need to keep an eye on the likes of the Kings and Suns but neither of these teams is ready at this time to knock the Mavs out of there. What could derail them is the perhaps inevitable career ending oldness injury that Nowitzki may suffer, I’m not certain that the Mavs would be able to recover psychologically or on the court from that. 8th seed and bounced in the first round by the OKC Thunder.
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2015/16 Projection:
15th – 43 Wins, 39 Losses
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David Angelini
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